More on “The Ten-Year Rule” in Creativity (in: Screenwriting!)

So, after 20 years in the professional screen industries (I’m a million-selling transmedia writer: movies, games, books, etc)… and a screen reader (story analyst) for major film studios, etc…

JTV 20 years as a writer

I then chose to go back to academia, and do… a PhD on creativity in movies…(!)


How creativity in movies works,


Why, so many do it wrong (or: the hard way...)

…Why not make life a bit easier?

The (2016) PhD is a free PDF online – and you really should read it, if you’re a screenwriter..!


…It will solve a lot of your problems!

(See also my 2018 article in The Journal of Genius and Eminence on how: All creativity is just problem-solving…)

JoG&E cover Campbell Issue

The Journal of Genius and Eminence 2 (2) – March 2018

So, as world creativity expert, Prof. Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi found, it takes roughly ten years to internalize a domain in culture, and to then, produce something: creative.

The formal definition of a “creative” artifact (e.g.: a movie story!) is: new, useful, and surprising

As an aside, there is also lots of evidence for this “10-year rule”, in Jack Foster’s great book: How To Get Ideas (1996):

For example, Foster notes:

`In attempting to make a lightbulb, [Edison] tried over a thousand ideas before he hit the one that worked.

Ray Bradbury wrote at least one short story a week for ten years before he wrote one that made the hair on the his neck stand up.

Kepler spent nine years and filled 9,000 folio sheets with calculations in his small handwriting trying to work out the orbit of Mars before he concluded that the paths of the planets were not circular but elliptical.’

(Foster 1996, pp. 88-9)

And, Malcolm Gladwell also supports this view (though, he calls it `the 10,000 hour rule’ – which amounts to: about 10 years of work for most people) in “Outliers”. (Gladwell 2008)

What all of this means, is:

It takes about 10 years to acquire enough habitus (i.e., “a feel for the game” in Bourdieu’s terms) to be: Creative.

(That is, to produce a work, that will be judged as “creative” by the field, i.e. the audience, the critics, the film industry…)

The standard bipartite (two-part) definition of “creative” is “new and useful“, or in other words, “novel and appropriate.”

Or – the tripartite definition of creativity: “new and useful and surprising“!

Also see, this great article:

Kaufman, Scott Barry, and James C. Kaufman. “Ten Years to Expertise, Many More to Greatness: An Investigation of Modern Writers.Journal of Creative Behaviour 41, no. 2 (2007): 114-24.

So now – back to the crux of this post:

After 10 years of learning, hard work, and practice, what screenwriter (anywhere) wants to risk having their film story, fail…? [1]

(Which is also why – you should probably read my PhD… It has lots of “shortcuts to movie creativity” in it!)

This “10-year rule” is also borne out by the evidence from the Field of Screenwriting…

In Chapter 23 of the great: The 101 Habits of Highly Successful Screenwriters (Iglesias 2001), six extremely successful screenwriters also verify this “10-year rule” finding:

`Jim Kouf [writer of the films Rush Hour, Gang Related, Operation Dumbo Drop, Disorganized Crime, Stakeout, Miracles, The Hidden, Secret Admirer, American Dreamer, Class, Up The Creek]:

“I wrote 11 TV specs before I got someone to take me seriously and then it took 6 feature scripts before I wrote one that was good enough.”

Michael Schiffer [writer of the films The Four Feathers, The Peacemaker, Crimson Tide, Lean On Me, Colors]:

“Developing craft is a very slow process. If you were playing the violin, you wouldn’t expect to pick it up and then go to Carnegie Hall within 6 months. And yet people expect their first or second script to sell and become a hit movie. It’s a bit delusional. Sure, there may be instances of this happening, but I think generally it’s a craft that takes 5 to 20 years to develop.”

Tom Schulman [writer of Holy Man, Eight Heads In A Duffel Bag, Medicine Man, What About Bob? Dead Poets Society, Honey I Shrunk The Kids, Second Sight]:

“We all hear stories of overnight successes. But almost every one of those successes will tell you that it was an overnight success that took 10 to 20 years. This is by far the rule.”

Scott Rosenberg [writer of Con Air, High Fidelity, Gone In 60 Seconds]:

“I wrote ten scripts before I got my first agent, wrote another two before my first sale and another three before anything got made… I look back at those ten scripts and they suck… And these kids, with their lottery mentality think they just wrote The Terminator, and it’s ridiculous.”

Nicholas Kazan [writer of Enough, Bicentennial Man, Fallen, Matilda, Dream Lover, Reversal of Fortune, At Close Range, Patty Hearst, Frances]:

“The trick is knowing which category you fall into. Are you someone who’ll make it eventually? Or are you someone who’ll work at it for 20 years and never make it?”

Frank Darabont [A Nightmare on Elm Street 3, The Blob, The Fly 2, The Shawshank Redemption, Frankenstein, The Walking Dead]:

“There are potentially more talented writers and directors than I, working in shoe stores and Burger Kings across the nation. The difference is I was willing to put in the nine years of effort and they weren’t.”

(Iglesias 2001: 211-20)

Likewise, Stephen King, who has had over 50 films (or television) screen adaptations made (from his novels and short stories), makes a statement in On Writing (King 2000) about absorbing the Domain (which is part of: a writer, acquiring habitus, or `a feel for the game’):

`If you want to be a writer, you must do two things above all others: read a lot and write a lot. There’s no way around these two things that I’m aware of, no shortcut.’

(King 2000: 164)

Even Ingmar Bergman made 10 films that were an artistic and commercial catastrophe. See the below interview with Dick Cavett in 1971, from: 6 mins 50 secs, through to the 7 mins 43 secs mark…

Ingmar Bergman & Bibi Andersson interviewed by Dick Cavett (1971)

At this point in his career, Bergman had made 32 pictures, and: 10 were “catastrophes” from both an artistic and commercial point of view…! And, in Bergman’s view, only 10 (of the 32!) were: good. (Some of the “good” ones are actually classics of cinema: e.g., The Seventh Seal, Wild Strawberries, Persona, Cries and Whispers, Fanny and Alexanderetc. )

Also – re: the 10-year rule, if you are an aspiring (or even – practising) novelist – and want to save yourself about 10 years time, I strongly suggest, you try this excellent book:

Lisa Cron’s Wired for Story: The Writer’s Guide to Using Brain Science to Hook Readers from the Very First Sentence

And, check this great TED Talk out!

Also, see:

Why You Need to Read 100 Screenplays if you are aiming to become a screenwriter.

Also see:



So – anyway – to return to Csikszentmihalyi (1996) on creativity:

`A person who wants to make a creative contribution not only must work within a creative system but must also reproduce that system within his or her mind. In other words, the person must learn the rules and content of the domain as well as the criteria of selection, the preferences of the field.

In science, it is practically impossible to make a creative contribution without internalizing the fundamental knowledge of the domain…

The same conclusions are voiced in every other discipline.

Artists agree that a painter cannot make a creative contribution without looking, and looking, and looking at previous art, and without knowing what other artists and critics consider good and bad art.

Writers say that you have to read, read, and read some more, and know what the critics’ criteria for good writing are, before you can write creatively yourself.’

(Csikszentmihalyi 1996: 47)

(So – there you have it! Get cracking – and absorb that Domain of knowledge! Read lots of screenplays – and write: ten of them! By then you will have mastered all the complex elements of: Premise, Hook, Genre, Plot, Character, Characterization, Setting, Theme/s, Dialog, Pacing, Structure, and all the other elements )

Legendary creativity and genius researcher D K Simonton also makes a similar point, in his (excellent) book, Great Flicks: Scientific Studies of Cinematic Creativity and Aesthetics (2011):

`Was Orson Welles an unadulterated genius whose Citizen Kane could spring from his brain like Minerva from the head of Zeus?

I don’t think so. To begin with he had acquired relevant experience in the theatre and in radio that he could carry over to his first feature.

In addition, he had the fortune of working with some very talented and more experienced collaborators – most notably the writer Herman J Mankiewicz and the cinematographer Gregg Toland, both of whom had been active for over a dozen years.’

(Simonton 2011: 128)

Simonton also talks about the ten-year rule in creativity, in that excellent 2011 book (i.e., Great Flicks).

I highly commend both the book, and taking 10 years to learn: a creative domain.

On other words, the ten-year rule is verified by considerable evidence from the field.

…Screenwriting is a recondite (deep – and complex!) domain.

See also, this great post: The Ultimate Guide To Screenwriting Mistakes!

And, try not to make any of those mistakes in your spec screenplay! (Or – in any screenplay, probably?)

See also my blog-post where I analyze The BlackList Survey – Titles and Loglines (2005-2017)! (It is mostly, a satire – but ironically, has a lot of truth in it!)

There is at least around 10 years’ worth of material (ie – movies, films, information, processes) to absorb, in the domain of filmovies (and also, TV) screenwriting before you nail (i.e., master) it all. (…And, TV is actually, a whole other creative domain…! So are: documentaries! …Videogames are even more complex than those.)

DIFI Film System Nuns with Guns

The Feature Film Domain as a DIFI (Domain, Individual, Field interaction) system (see Csikszentmihalyi 1988-2014, on the DIFi – or, DPF – systems model of creativity)

So the key is to keep writing screenplays, and/or keep making movies.

Breakthrough Success Depends on Your Productivity, Not Your Age

Hey – but: How do you keep making movies if your first (or subsequent) movie loses money-?

Simple. Read my PhD. Or my PhD-blog.

Or both. Or neither.

…Thoughts? Comments? Feedback?


JT Velikovsky

High-RoI Story/Screenplay/Movie and Transmedia Researcher

The above is (mostly) an adapted excerpt, from my doctoral thesis: “Communication, Creativity and Consilience in Cinema”. It is presented here for the benefit of fellow screenwriting, filmmaking and creativity researchers. For more, see https://aftrs.academia.edu/JTVelikovsky

JT Velikovsky is also a produced feature film screenwriter and million-selling transmedia writer-director-producer. He has been a professional story analyst for major film studios, film funding organizations, and for the national writer’s guild. For more see: http://on-writering.blogspot.com/



Cron, L. (2012). Wired For Story: The Writer’s Guide to Using Brain Science to Hook Readers from the Very First Sentence (1st ed.). New York: Ten Speed Press.

Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly (1996), Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention (1st edn.; New York: HarperCollins) viii, 456 p.

Foster, J (1996), How To Get Ideas, 1st edn, Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco.

Gladwell, Malcolm (2008), Outliers: The Story of Success (1st edn.; New York: Little, Brown and Co.) 309 p.

Iglesias, Karl (2001), The 101 Habits of Highly Successful Screenwriters: Insider Secrets from Hollywood’s Top Writers (Avon, Mass.: Adams Media) xxiv, 232 p.

King, Stephen (2000), On Writing: A Memoir of the Craft (London: Hodder & Stoughton).

Simonton, Dean Keith (2011), Great Flicks: Scientific Studies of Cinematic Creativity and Aesthetics (New York; Oxford: Oxford University Press).

VELIKOVSKY, J. T. (2016), `Communication, Creativity and Consilience in Cinema: A comparative study of the top 20 Return-on-Investment (RoI) Movies and the Doxa of Screenwriting’. PhD Thesis, University of Newcastle. (approx 450 pages)

VELIKOVSKY, J. T. (2018), Darwin & Kubrick, Joe Campbell & Me: Eminent-Genius and Everyday-Joe Heroes on a Journey. The Journal of Genius and Eminence, 2, pp. 55-69.


[1] This is why – doing a study of the Top 20 RoI and also Bottom 20 RoI movies yourself is incredibly useful for any movie creators (e.g.: screenwriters). See the StoryAlity PhD (free online) for the full details. It is about: 450 pages. But – also saves you about 5 years of fulltime work, at the least.

(See also this post: The Top 20 RoI Films)

And, for an Overview of this weblog, see also:

Index of posts on the StoryAlity PhD Weblog



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